November 14, 2016by Javier Paniagua in Betting Research, Blog

Most Profitable Odds for the Top 5 Leagues

Hi everyone,

We studied the results to bet one unit on the top 5 football leagues in Europe regarding odds range, trying to find an edge or a pattern to establish a base for a strategy. Odds used for this analysis are taken from Pinnacle Sports; they usually have the highest odds and massive liquidity for these leagues. The goal of this report is searching the most profitable range of odds for every type of league. We will show two different tables, on the one hand, the results to bet on the Home Team and, on the other, to bet on the Away Team, grouped by odds intervals. Draw odds are discarded because it doesn’t fit for this kind of study, we will use them in other systems which would be more appropriate.

Parameters of the research

Football Leagues. The top five national leagues included in the study are German Bundesliga, English Premier League, French Ligue 1, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga.
Odds Bookmaker. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, pre-match.
Seasons. Four seasons, from 2012/2013 to 2015/2016.
Data range. From August 2012 to May 2015.
P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Home Team or Away Team.
Games. The number of total games played.
Yield. Yield is a measure of betting tips efficiency. It depends on a corresponding selection of bets and odds for certain matches.

Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%

Table #1: Analysis of P/L – Bet on Home Team Win –

Odds Analysis Top 5 Leagues - Bet on Home Team Win -

wdt_ID	Range of Odds	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier League	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	P/L TOTAL	Yield
1	1.01 - 2.00	2,799	-11.77	-4.26	-17.16	-17.99	-13.40	-64.58	-2.31
2	2.01 - 3.00	2,654	-6.15	-55.44	2.91	-5.43	-26.45	-90.56	-3.41
3	3.01 - 4.00	800	16.72	-9.09	-45.89	1.81	-12.55	-49.00	-6.13
4	4.01 - 5.00	326	-17.33	-14.03	7.22	-27.06	-7.10	-58.30	-17.88
5	5.01 - 6.00	179	11.85	-7.56	-3.13	1.73	9.60	12.49	6.98
6	6.01 - 7.00	113	16.85	-6.17	-6.00	-16.00	10.44	-0.88	-0.78
7	7.01 - 8.00	86	-6.85	25.82	-9.58	14.45	2.89	26.73	31.08
8	8.01 - 9.00	53	11.02	-1.03	10.65	-3.61	6.97	24.00	45.28
9	9.01 - 10.00	40	3.55	0.63	2.14	-9.00	0.41	-2.27	-5.68
10	> 10.00	132	-33.00	-2.00	-1.73	-1.07	30.74	-7.06	-5.35
	Range of Odds	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier League	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	P/L TOTAL	Yield
			∑ = -15.11	∑ = -73.13	∑ = -60.57	∑ = -62.17	∑ = 1.55	∑ = -209.43

wdt_ID Range of Odds Games P/L Bundesliga P/L Premier League P/L Ligue 1 P/L Serie A P/L La Liga P/L TOTAL Yield

1 1.01 - 2.00 2,799 -11.77 -4.26 -17.16 -17.99 -13.40 -64.58 -2.31

2 2.01 - 3.00 2,654 -6.15 -55.44 2.91 -5.43 -26.45 -90.56 -3.41

3 3.01 - 4.00 800 16.72 -9.09 -45.89 1.81 -12.55 -49.00 -6.13

4 4.01 - 5.00 326 -17.33 -14.03 7.22 -27.06 -7.10 -58.30 -17.88

5 5.01 - 6.00 179 11.85 -7.56 -3.13 1.73 9.60 12.49 6.98

6 6.01 - 7.00 113 16.85 -6.17 -6.00 -16.00 10.44 -0.88 -0.78

7 7.01 - 8.00 86 -6.85 25.82 -9.58 14.45 2.89 26.73 31.08

8 8.01 - 9.00 53 11.02 -1.03 10.65 -3.61 6.97 24.00 45.28

9 9.01 - 10.00 40 3.55 0.63 2.14 -9.00 0.41 -2.27 -5.68

10 > 10.00 132 -33.00 -2.00 -1.73 -1.07 30.74 -7.06 -5.35

Range of Odds Games P/L Bundesliga P/L Premier League P/L Ligue 1 P/L Serie A P/L La Liga P/L TOTAL Yield

∑ = -15.11 ∑ = -73.13 ∑ = -60.57 ∑ = -62.17 ∑ = 1.55 ∑ = -209.43

If we analyse the results of the first table, it seems that betting on the favourite team is not a good option, odds lower than 2.00 don’t make a profit in any league. Many users bet on big teams of every league or “clear” favourites of the match, but, as you can check by yourself, a system to bet on favourite teams when play at home doesn’t lead to good results. After 2,800 games your return is 2.31% negative.

If we continue studying the odds, the range between 5.01 and 9.00 gets the best results. You can see detail of the figures here:

Odds range	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	TOTAL	Yield
5.01 – 9.00	431	+32.87	+11.06	-8.06	-3.43	+29.90	+62.34	+14.46%

The best league to bet on Home Team Win with high odds is definitively Spanish La Liga, it gets amazing results in every range of odds, from 5.00. To bet on the Underdog, it can be a very profitable strategy for this league.

Table #2: Analysis of P/L – Bet on Away Team Win –

Odds Analysis Top 5 Leagues - Bet on Away Team Win -

wdt_ID	Range of Odds	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier League	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	P/L TOTAL	Yield
1	1.01 - 2.00	826	-4.82	11.91	-2.81	5.99	-8.22	2.05	0.25
2	2.01 - 3.00	1,520	-38.26	-14.12	29.28	13.40	-21.52	-31.22	-2.05
3	3.01 - 4.00	1,699	10.08	-7.73	-25.85	-25.14	16.71	-31.93	-1.88
4	4.01 - 5.00	1,014	23.86	-1.29	-39.52	-17.08	21.25	-12.78	-1.26
5	5.01 - 6.00	510	-21.27	23.56	12.26	-9.57	40.79	45.77	8.97
6	6.01 - 7.00	330	-4.52	-16.82	-15.05	3.25	4.72	-28.42	-8.61
7	7.01 - 8.00	266	-10.30	7.87	27.30	22.53	-2.81	44.59	16.76
8	8.01 - 9.00	199	20.38	-3.18	-2.03	-20.73	17.27	11.71	5.88
9	9.01 - 10.00	141	7.96	15.92	12.24	-23.66	-12.24	0.22	0.16
10	> 10.00	677	17.81	27.30	-41.83	-52.31	-100.15	-149.18	-22.04
	Range of Odds	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier League	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	P/L TOTAL	Yield
			∑ = 0.92	∑ = 43.42	∑ = -46.01	∑ = -103.32	∑ = -44.20	∑ = -149.19

wdt_ID Range of Odds Games P/L Bundesliga P/L Premier League P/L Ligue 1 P/L Serie A P/L La Liga P/L TOTAL Yield

1 1.01 - 2.00 826 -4.82 11.91 -2.81 5.99 -8.22 2.05 0.25

2 2.01 - 3.00 1,520 -38.26 -14.12 29.28 13.40 -21.52 -31.22 -2.05

3 3.01 - 4.00 1,699 10.08 -7.73 -25.85 -25.14 16.71 -31.93 -1.88

4 4.01 - 5.00 1,014 23.86 -1.29 -39.52 -17.08 21.25 -12.78 -1.26

5 5.01 - 6.00 510 -21.27 23.56 12.26 -9.57 40.79 45.77 8.97

6 6.01 - 7.00 330 -4.52 -16.82 -15.05 3.25 4.72 -28.42 -8.61

7 7.01 - 8.00 266 -10.30 7.87 27.30 22.53 -2.81 44.59 16.76

8 8.01 - 9.00 199 20.38 -3.18 -2.03 -20.73 17.27 11.71 5.88

9 9.01 - 10.00 141 7.96 15.92 12.24 -23.66 -12.24 0.22 0.16

10 > 10.00 677 17.81 27.30 -41.83 -52.31 -100.15 -149.18 -22.04

Range of Odds Games P/L Bundesliga P/L Premier League P/L Ligue 1 P/L Serie A P/L La Liga P/L TOTAL Yield

∑ = 0.92 ∑ = 43.42 ∑ = -46.01 ∑ = -103.32 ∑ = -44.20 ∑ = -149.19

Looking at the results for Away Team, the conclusions are similar to the previous one. The High odds are very rewarding, but in this case, the range between 2.00 and 3.00 obtains a remarkable profit in France and Italy leagues. What is most surprising is the profit made in La Liga with odds between 3.00 and 9.00, close to +100u.

The range between 5.01 and 9.00 gets the best results again, though the yield is lower than the previous one. You can see detail of the figures here:

Odds range	Games	P/L Bundesliga	P/L Premier	P/L Ligue 1	P/L Serie A	P/L La Liga	TOTAL	Yield
5.01 – 9.00	1,305	-15.71	+11.43	+22.48	-4.52	+59.97	+73.65	+5.64%

Conclusions

First of all, we have to tell you that when we decided to make this study, we didn’t know the results at all. We are completely surprised by the figures. We still think that the data are not decisive enough to build a strategy, but, as we said too many times, it can be very helpful to build up a base for future strategies. Please, take note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, this kind of study can be very helpful to narrow the odds in systems when those leagues are included.

We will try to complete this report with another research to identify the correlation between the odds and the teams for every league. Perhaps we can find which teams work best for a range of odds, creating filters and removing teams that worsen the overall result.

That’s all. We hope you enjoy the report and find it useful for your betting research.

If you want to propose a particular betting system or study to be analysed, please send us an email su*****@be*******.com or using our contact form, we will glad to help you.

Thanks!