Analysing odds movements in football betting: profitable or random?

In the exciting world of sports betting, one of the most studied aspects for bettors is odds movements. The variation of odds from opening to closing can be interpreted as a signal of a change in the odds perceived by bettors. In this article, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of over 180,000 football matches, from 2012 to May 2023, focusing on the most popular betting markets: Home team win, Away team win, Over 2.5 goals and Under 2.5 goals. Using odds data from the well-known bookmaker Pinnacle Sports which we use in the Betamin Builder tool, we have calculated the results of betting 1 unit on each market and analysed the differences between the opening and closing odds. The main objective is to determine whether taking advantage of odds movements can generate long term profitability.

Description of the research

The study consisted of 4 different tests:

1. Bet one unit on the Home Team at closing odds when they have increased from their initial price. Same procedure for the Away Team.
2. Bet one unit on the Home Team at closing odds when they have dropped from their initial price. Same procedure for the Away Team.
3. Bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals at closing odds when they have increased from their initial price. Same procedure for Under 2.5 goals. 
4. Bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals at closing odds when they have dropped from their initial price. Same procedure for Under 2.5 goals. 

General Results

These are the results of betting on the different betting types when the final odds are higher or lower than the opening odds.

As you can see, the first impression is that betting on the Home or Away Team, Over/Under 2.5 goals when the odds go up or down does not show us anything particularly extraordinary.

The following table represents something quite obvious, if anyone can bet predicting that the opening odds will always go down, this bettor would make the following profit:

Opening Odds vs. Closing Odds – Home Team Odds Analysis –

The most profitable range to bet on is when the odds go down in the range 3.01-4.00, with a profit of +122.64 units, the next most profitable range is 8.01-9.00, with a profit of +40.67 units, and the third range is 7.01-8.00 with a profit of +37.12 units. When the odds go up, the most profitable range is 6.01-7.00 with a profit of +19.26 units. It is worth noting that there are higher profits when the odds go down than when they go up, although these are not consistent ranges, so it is not advisable to use this data uniquely to create strategies.

If we take the data of the results by leagues, the most profitable leagues are obtained when the odds go down, being the best leagues, Liga Portugal 2, USA MLS and Eerste Divisie of the Netherlands, with profits of +71.41 units, +64.96 units and +26.10 units respectively.

Opening Odds vs. Closing Odds – Away Team Odds Analysis –

As for the results of betting on the away team, in this case, unlike betting on the home team, the most profitable range is when the odds go up, the most profit is obtained in the range 10.01-11.00 with +124.46 units, the rest of the ranges have losses. When the odds go down there are 2 consecutive ranges, 8.01 to 10.00 that are profitable. As we said before, these are isolated ranges, the result of data mining, rather than something that can be considered as a pattern to be taken into account for possible long-term winning systems.

Regarding the analysis by leagues, the most profitable league is Japan’s J2 league with +106.58 profit units.

Opening Odds vs. Closing Odds – Over 2.5 goals Odds Analysis –

Opening Odds vs. Closing Odds – Under 2.5 goals Odds Analysis –

Regarding the analysis for the Over 2.5 goals and Under 2.5 goals odds, we hardly find any odds ranges or leagues that can be profitable. This may be mainly due to the fact that the opening odds are more efficient in the goal markets, and the odds movements do not affect the long-term results. Unlike betting on the home or away team, where more value bets can be found in the odds movements.

Odds ranges where there has been a large percentage change

We tend to think of falling odds as the best way to maximise profits, but what happens if we do the opposite process, looking for a very high increase in odds to take advantage of that rise. We want to analyse odds movements on a percentage level to test if this is an indicator. Often the odds undergo very large changes and we want to confirm if it has a positive effect on the results.

Finally, we present 4 very interesting tables, showing the most profitable ranges of percentage increases or decreases in odds depending on the type of bet. According to the data, where you can find more opportunities, it is in the under or over odds betting on the victory of the home team. But, as mentioned above, we do not see a pattern that is decisive when making a decision to build a strategy based on odds movements.

Conclusions

In summary, our comprehensive analysis of odds movements in football betting reveals that there is no clear and consistent pattern that allows profitable decisions to be made based solely on these movements. While some profitable ranges were found in certain markets and leagues, these were isolated results and cannot be considered long-term winning strategies.

As you can see, if you analyse the data without any filtering at all, there seems to be no sign of a trend or pattern to make a decision about the usefulness of the data. There will be many punters who may find this kind of information vital. In fact, there is an increasing proliferation of sites where they expose odds falls in terms of percentages.

There is one important factor to bear in mind. Bookmakers aim to keep a balanced balance, so that they always make a profit, regardless of the outcome of the event. If the odds of a match are falling, it may lead one to think that Team A is more likely to win because of this event, and perhaps the bookmaker is simply adjusting its profit for that particular match.

Movements in odds may reflect changes in the odds as perceived by bettors, but they do not guarantee long-term profitability.

If you are interested in building profitable strategies or following proven public strategies, we recommend using tools like Betamin Builder, which generate solid strategies based on consistent patterns over time.

Ultimately, the study of odds movements should be considered as a component of analysis in betting systems. While it can be useful in certain contexts and trading strategies, it is essential to combine it with other elements of analysis and set stop-losses to protect your investment.

Remember that odds movements are only one part of the complex world of sports betting, and ongoing research and rigorous analysis are critical to finding profitable long-term opportunities.

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