Over 2.5 goals profitable strategies for 2023

The All Leagues Over 2.5 Goals Against the Trend has a winning trend in its filters, but the league selection is the where differences of opinion come in.

At the moment, all the top rating over 2.5 goal strategies are using the same settings as the Over 2.5 Goals Against the Trend strategy, the only difference is the league selection. The versions with more leagues tend to have more variance. The other leading versions have used less leagues, focusing on those with high yields and enough data in those leagues to support including those leagues.

The top 4 all have the same settings as the All Leagues Over 2.5 goals Against the Trend. But they choose less leagues, as we can see by the picks per month column. Let’s look at them in more detail.

Funger Over 2,5 – 1

This next best ranked version uses a Positive Inclusion league selection method. It only includes leagues with 5%+ yields with 100+ bets. Which leads to only 10 picks per month from 6 leagues. So it selects fewer leagues and currently has a lower yield than Funger’s 24 leagues. This suggests that less does not necessarily mean more efficiency. Finding the right balance between using leagues with enough data to support their trend, but not being too strict as to cut out leagues that are also showing the trend but not up to an arbitrary number like 100. So the number of bets needed for a league to be included in a strategy should depend on the overall amount of data available for that strategy and not be a fixed number for all strategies. Having said that, this version does show 20 out of the last 22 months as finishing in profit, which is another sign of just how good this trend can be in specific leagues. One advantage of this strategy is that we know exactly how the leagues were selected and we can repeat the process if we want to refresh the strategy with the latest data.

This next version also uses a Positive Inclusion league selection method. It is less strict than the previous version and it includes leagues with 5%+ yields with 50+ bets instead of +100 bets. Which leads to 13 picks per month from 10 leagues instead of 6. This version has just finished a 12 months of consecutive profits that ended in February, but February’s “loss” was just -0.09 points. That is basically a flat month. This version has an 11% yield over in the nearly 3 years since it was shared in July 2020. This again shows the strong core trend behind all these versions.

This version was shared by a Betaminic veteran Dave3310. It includes 22 leagues which generate about 20 picks per month. 7 out of 9 of its months have been profitable since it was shared. This version has the highest Since Shared yield of all 5 versions with +19.69%.

This is the updated version of the original core strategy that was created and shared by Betaminic back in 2017. The “All Leagues” in the title comes from the original version that worked and made a profit across all leagues in the older 57 league database. It still does make a profit across all 111 leagues in the expanded database, but with a lower yield of 2%. And that shows just how strong this core trend is. This version uses a Negative Exclusion method to choose leagues. Negative Exclusion starts with all 111 leagues and only removes leagues with a negative P/L and 100+ bets in their league data set. So it included a lot of leagues where the trend might not be as strongly expressed. The aim of Negative Exclusion, in theory, is to reduce the chances of data mining by avoiding using only a few leagues that may just be positive variance. The strategy has made a 5% yield Since Shared with 10 of its first 12 months ending in profit, but it has not had the smoother winning streaks that the other versions have had. It uses 88 of the 111 leagues, which is significantly more than the previous 4 versions. Even though this strategy is still in profit and may end its losing streak at some point, there may be some users who might prefer Funger’s version or one of the other versions of this core strategy.